Whilst the Tory party licks their wounds from a devastating defeat, there’ll be many questions about where to go next. The answer is staring them right in the face.
Time to Look at Results
When assessing the election results, you must consider two different numbers: the seats won and the popular vote.
Seats Matter More
We operate a ‘first past the post’ system, whereby your success is determined by the number of seats you win, not your overall vote share.
Popular Vote Share Somewhat Irrelevant
So, in reality, Reform UK won more votes than the Lib Dems but ended up with five seats, and the Lib Dems ended up with 72 seats.
Power Determined by Seats
Long story short, if you want to win power, you must win seats more than you need to win votes. You can be popular but powerless.
What Does Seat Distribution Show?
There are 650 seats in the United Kingdom. Of these seats, the Tories won 121, meaning they lost 251.
Where Did They Go?
The seats generally went in three directions: Labour, Lib Dems, and Reform UK. Interestingly, whilst the Tories might have lost many votes to Reform UK, they didn’t lose many seats to them.
What Does That Tell Us?
It shows that the perceived ‘shift to the right’ that many people expected and many Tories called for just didn’t happen.
Direction of Losses Will Hurt
Logically, the Tories would lose some voters on the right to Reform. You could understand why they’d even lose moderate Tory voters to Lib Dems. The ones that will hurt are the losses to Labour.
Vocal Minority
A vocal minority called for the shift to the right, and the loudest voices in the party favour a right-wing form of Conservatism.
Votes Showed the Way
Opinions don’t matter in a vote, though—voters tell you everything you need to know. In this case, they don’t want a shift to the right, and the country appears tired of it.
Tory Party Needs New Faces
A rehaul is needed after 14 years in government. It’ll be time to rebuild, and as Labour found, that process takes a long time.
New Party, New People
The Tories must learn that the country grew tired of the drama and circus that became the Tory party. They want serious people acting in the public interest, not self-interest.
Time to Purge
Many of the old guard have gone. Whilst there’ll be a temptation to return to Johnson et al. to win back popularity, they’ll have to realise how disliked he was by the public in the end.
Country Reverted to Centre
Here’s the reality – of the 650 seats 510 went to centre or left-of-centre parties.
Most Prolonged Period of Stability in the Centre
Cameron won two consecutive elections (although the first with the help of the Lib Dems), and there was a period of relative stability as the Tories occupied the centre-right ground.
Right Went Wrong
Those on the right will talk of the majority Johnson won running from the right, but it was short-lived. As the party went right under Johnson and Truss, the dislike grew, and the policies became more divisive.
Moderate Tories Will Win Out
You rarely win elections from the wings – you almost always win from the centre because most people aren’t politically extreme.
Moderate Conservatism Needs to Return
A more moderate, centre-ground Tory party will be best placed to win back power in the future. The problem is that there are no longer any rising stars.
In-Fighting Needs to Stop
The various factions within the party are the main drivers behind the chaos. Any party with five leaders in 14 years needs to examine itself deeply.
Tory Factions Should Be Ashamed
It became a shambles. Should the Conservatives ever regain power, the internal factions within them need to put the country before their own self-interest.
Lessons to Last a Long Time
The scale of this defeat should teach the Tories lessons for generations to come. When you treat governing with disregard for the service that they did, it will end in tears. And it did.
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