A series of high-profile Tory MPs have decided to stand down at the next election. This signals a huge lack of faith that the Conservatives can even get close to winning in July.
High Profile Tories Quitting
In a double blow to Rishi Sunak, it’s not just the number of MPs standing down – it’s the amount of experience he’s losing simultaneously.
Former Prime Minister on Quitters List
The former PM, Theresa May, is the highest-profile MP to step down. She is joined by several MPs with cabinet-level experience.
Michael Gove Latest Big Name to Step Down
Gove has been a central figure of the Tories since 2010, and Sunak will be sorry to lose someone of his experience.
Gove Is a Sunak Ally
Michael Gove has publicly endorsed Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister, saying that Mr Sunak “has the plan our country needs.”
He Felt the Time Was Right to Step Down
“The chance to serve is wonderful. but there comes a time when you know that it is time to leave. That a new generation should lead.”
Who’s Who of Tory Names
The other Tory heavyweights stepping down include Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Matt Hancock, Ben Wallace, Nadhim Zahawi and John Redwood.
Record Number of Tories Stepping Down
So far, 80 Tories have announced their decision to quit, surpassing the previous record of 72, set in 1997 when John Major faced Tony Blair’s New Labour.
A Tough Fight Gets Tougher
In many seats, there’s an element of the ‘celebrity’ politician, where people will vote based on recognition of their candidate rather than policy.
Losing Big-Name MPs Make Seats More Vulnerable
When a party loses a big-name MP, it throws the seat open again. This can make a previously very safe seat far more vulnerable.
Safe Havens Can Become Battlegrounds
Take Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath seat. At the previous general election, he won with an 18,349 majority. This time, a combination of a lower-profile candidate and more targeted campaigning by rivals could see the Tories lose a safe-haven seat.
Each New Resignation Is a Bitter Blow
The more high-profile resignations, the harder this election will be for Sunak and his party to win. Several safe seats are now under threat, which could spell an even bigger disaster for the Tories.
Why Are So Many Stepping Down?
When you look at the MPs’ explanations, there’s a mixture of reasons. Some, like Theresa May, have been on the job long. She’s 67 and has reached a natural retirement age.
Politics Is a Relentless World
Some MPs have mentioned the toll it takes on them. The abuse, the constant media attention, the intrusion, the time away from families. Living a life in the spotlight isn’t for everyone.
Writing on the Wall
For others, the most likely explanation is that they know they can’t win, and they can’t campaign knowing they’ve had a dreadful record in government.
Voters Have to Trust New Faces
For many traditional Tory voters, trusting a new name with no track record might be too big an ask—especially for those in the centre of the party. It might push their vote elsewhere.
Polling Not Going Well for Sunak
The latest YouGov polling data shows that the Tories are still miles behind in the polls, with only 21% of people surveyed saying they intend to vote Tory on July 4th.
Wilderness for Now
The likely outcome for the next few years is that the Tories will be in the political wilderness for a few years. They’re going to lose the election—soundly. They’re disjointed and lost the trust of the wider electorate and many of their own voters.
Vote Split – All Depends on the Right
Much of the Tory future will depend on how the right win develops. Reform UK is surging at the moment, but if it doesn’t get the mood of the country correct, it will stay a fringe party.
Reform Won’t Win on the Right
Suppose Reform doesn’t drift slowly towards the centre. In that case, many Tory voters will realise a vote for Reform will be a waste and may find the centre right a more tolerable political ground. Parties on the extremes never win.
Could This Be a Good Thing for the Tories?
This could be exactly what the Conservative party needs on a long enough timeline: a complete removal of the old guard, the ones tainted by infighting, a dreadful Brexit, mismanagement of the economy, and party games.
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