The latest YouGov polls show a surprising change in voting intention. There’s a suggestion the minor parties’ messages are getting through – something the big guns need to work on.
Wafer Thin Gap on the Right
The big worry for the Tories is the slip from low to lower. They were polling around 21% of the voting intention when the election was announced. They’re now at 18%.
Reform UK Eating into Vote Share
As predicted, the Farage effect for Reform UK is genuine. Since he announced he’d stand in the election, Reform UK have seen their polling numbers rise to 17%.
Reform UK Started Lower
When the election was announced, Reform UK was expected to win around 12% of the votes, so if they reach 17%, that’s a remarkable increase.
Genuine Threat to Tories
The biggest story here is a legitimate concern for the Tories that they might not be in power or the opposition for the first time in over a century.
Tories Have No Identity
The Tories have got no identity, and it’s slowly killing them. They’ve left the centre ground and lurched to the right.
Lurch to the Right Hurting Them
The problem they have is by going to the right, they lose the centre-right Tories. They can’t go far enough right for some, and those will vote for Reform UK.
Record Not Helped
Fundamentally, any move to the right is a matter of words and promises. Their actions haven’t delivered on the points important to people on the right – Brexit and Immigration, primarily.
Reform UK Might Be Exposed – But Not Yet
The expectation is that Reform UK will be a perennial minor opposition, giving them the perfect position. They can make as much noise about issues, knowing they’ll never have to deliver on their promises.
We’ve Got Examples
Take the Leave campaign. Certain members never expected to win. When they did win, they had to deliver their utopian vision, which failed. Spectacularly.
Lib Dems Flying
Arguably, the bigger surprise is a resurgent Liberal Democrats.
Polling Data Poor When Election Announced
When the election was first announced, the Lib Dems were polling around 8% of the vote share.
Ed Davey on the Media Trail
Since then, the Lib Dem leader, Sir Ed Davey, has been on the media trail. Falling off paddle boards in the Lake District, sliding down rollercoasters and making himself the centre of attention.
It’s Working for Them
The polling shows that the attention-grabbing buffoonery is working for him. The Lib Dems are now polling at 15% – their highest figure since 2022.
Lib Dem Clear Strategy
One tactical approach that the Lib Dems have gone public on is their targeting of vulnerable Tory seats. By focusing on small areas, they are garnering more attention and success.
Resurgent Figures in Polls
The polling suggests that the Lib Dems might win several dozen seats in the election, taking them back towards the high points of 2005 and 2010.
Voter Shift Gives Concerns For Labour
The worry for the Labour Party is that their polling scores are dropping slightly. Not enough to affect their chances of winning, but enough to raise a few eyebrows.
Labour Down to Lowest Polling Data Since 2022
The current Labour vote share is polling at 38%, which hasn’t been that low since August 2022.
Lib Dems Taking Floating Voters
It’s not that Labour is doing anything wrong per se; it’s just the robust Lib Dem stance on Europe is winning over many of the centrist Europhiles.
Jockeying for Position Not Over
We’re still far enough out from the election that there’ll be twists and turns to come. We’ll keep a close eye on the polls to see how this turns out, but expect more changes.
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