The controversial Rwanda bill is likely to become law in the coming days. According to Matthew Rycroft, the Home Office’s permanent secretary, the UK government will hand over £50m to the Rwandan government once the bill has Royal Assent.
Conservatives Convinced It’ll Work
The bill is designed to forcibly deport anyone illegally arriving in the UK on small boats to Rwanda. It’d be a one-way ticket, designed to prevent anyone else following suit, and act as a deterrent to future asylum seekers.
The Bill Received MP Backing
Having been passed back and forth between the houses of Commons and Lords, it has finally been voted through by MPs. It is expected to pass into law in the coming days.
Sunak Criticised For Placating the Right
Sunak has been criticised by many, suggesting such an extreme bill is just to please the far right of his party. With his leadership under almost constant criticism, this is a likely reason for him pushing the policy with such vigour.
Braverman Lost Public Support Over Views
Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman led the charge on the bill and has received a lot of support from the right. Fundamentally though, her hardline rhetoric on asylum seekers eventually turned opinion against her and in some ways cost her her job.
Controversy Surrounds the Bill
Even for a government long used to controversy, the Rwanda bill has been a test of endurance. It has been batted back and forth between the Commons and the Lords. It has been changed and tweaked to make it more palatable to both MPs and Peers.
Concern Over Immigrant Safety
A particular sticking point was the lack of safety guarantees for refugees. Some were worried that having been sent to Rwanda, the Rwandan government might simply send them back to their home nation, exposing them to more danger.
Bill Was Softened to Abide by International Law
On several occasions the legal status of the bill was questioned. The Rwanda bill was changed to make it more in line with international law, and give it a better chance of passing into UK law.
Numbers Seeking UK Asylum Reached Record Level
On Sunday 14th April, a new daily record of 534 people reached the UK shoreline, hoping to seek asylum. This is seen as an unwanted headache for a government who promised to reduce immigration.
Fuel to Rwanda Bill Fire
The rise in asylum seekers has also been quietly welcomed by some supporters of the bill, because it strengthens their argument that something needs to be done.
Payments Might Unlikely to Be Well Received
Given one of the arguments for the bill is to reduce the amount of taxpayers money spent on the immigration issues, the £50m donation to the Rwandan government is unlikely to be well received by some.
Ongoing Costs For Rehoming Asylum Seekers
Whitehall’s official auditor says the deal will cost UK taxpayers about £1.8m for each asylum seeker, which is an awful lot of money at a time when government funds are already stretched.
Criticism of the Bill Not Hard to Find
The shadow Home Office minister, Stephen Kinnock said: “The boats have kept coming, the backlog has kept growing, and the people smugglers are still laughing all the way to the bank.”
Kinnock Accused the Government of Headline Chasing
“Two years of headline-chasing gimmicks, two years of pursuing a policy that is fundamentally unworkable, unaffordable and unlawful. Two years of flogging this dead horse”, he continued.
Cross-Bench Appreciation of the Problem
Now the bill has passed back and forth, and the amendments are close to agreement, Labour has said it won’t try to block the bill.
Labour Playing Politics?
The asylum issue is a political hot potato, and a potential vote winner and loser. If Labour blocks the bill, it alienates some of the centre right. If it allows the bill to pass and it’s a failure, they can blame the Tories.
Lack of Time for Alternatives
With a General Election looming, and not enough time to build a credible alternative plan, Labour are likely to keep their heads down and let the Tories take the heat on this one. It’s unlikely to be a Labour vote winner, but the wrong take could be a vote loser.
Unclear What the Next Steps Are
At this point, the future timeline isn’t quite clear. Once the bill is passed into law, there’s likely to be a notice period and border force agencies will undergo training on the new law. Don’t expect changes any time soon.
Possibility Number of Asylum Seekers Will Rise in Near Term
As the weather warms up and the sea calms down, sailing conditioning will improve. Don’t be surprised if we hear of more increases in the number of asylum seekers in the short term.
Rare Win for Sunak
If this headline policy does get passed into law, it’ll be a rare and timely win for Rishi Sunak. He’ll just have to hope that the far right voters will accept the £50m donation to Rwanda as the cost of solving the problem.
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