According to the latest Ipsos forecast, Labour is projected to achieve a historic landslide victory in the upcoming general election, with over 100 Conservative-held seats looking increasingly perilous. Here’s the full story.
Safe Seats at Risk
New polling for Ipsos suggests that not only is Labour set for a decisive victory in the upcoming election, but that so dominant has Keir Starmer’s party become that even previously safe Conservative seats could be up for grabs.
Labour’s Massive Lead
The latest projections suggest Labour could secure an astounding 453 seats, leaving the Conservatives with a mere 115.
15% Swing Away
This latest projection implies a sizable swing of 15% away from the Conservatives since 2019, showing how much the country has soured on the party, led by current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Over 100 Contested Seats
While the projection indicates a seemingly insurmountable lead for Labour, over 100 Conservative-held seats remain highly contested. According to Ipsos, these constituencies are considered too “close to call,” with narrow winning margins that hinge on the decisions of undecided or swing voters.
Outcomes Critical
The outcomes in these close races will be critical in determining the final composition of the House of Commons but are likely to remain a mystery until the vote counting begins.
Ipsos MRP Model
The Ipsos MRP model, the first of its kind for the 2024 general election, provides a detailed forecast of seat distribution. It estimates that the Liberal Democrats could win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party (SNP) 15, the Greens three, and Reform UK three.
Notable Projections
Notably, Nigel Farage of Reform UK is projected to win in Clacton, overturning a substantial Conservative majority. At the same time, Jeremy Corbyn, running as an independent, is predicted to lose to Labour in Islington North.
Labour’s Vote Share
Labour’s implied vote share is 43%, compared to the Conservatives’ 25%. Reform UK is projected to capture 12%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, the Greens 6%, the SNP 3%, and Plaid Cymru 1%. This represents a precipitous decline for the Conservatives, exacerbating fears of what Chris Hopkins, director of pollsters Savanta, called an “extinction-level event” for the party.
Conservatives Pivot
For their part, the Conservatives seem to have accepted that defeat is inevitable and, instead of campaigning for victory, have pivoted to warning about a Labour “supermajority.”
Warning of Supermajority
The Conservatives argue that such an outcome would leave unchecked the new Labour government, which would command one of the most significant majorities in UK political history.
117 Seats Uncertain
The projection highlights 117 seats as too close to call, with 56 marginally held by the Conservatives and 48 by Labour, with these seats set to be the pivotal battlegrounds of the election.
Worst Defeat Ever
If the projection holds, the Conservatives would suffer their worst defeat in modern political history. Their previous record low was under Tony Blair in 1997, when the party won just 165 seats.
High-Profile Risks
High-profile Conservatives risk losing their seats, including Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Grant Shapps, and Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Some Conservatives Safe
However, Jeremy Hunt is predicted to retain his seat in Godalming and Ash. Rishi Sunak’s Richmond and Northallerton seat is expected to remain Conservative, albeit with a significantly reduced majority.
Labour’s Rising Share
Labour’s vote share is rising across the country, notably in Scotland and north-east England, with more modest increases in traditional urban strongholds like London, Manchester, and Birmingham. Labour could also gain eight or nine seats in Wales due to declining Conservative support.
Liberal Democrats Gains
The Liberal Democrats are projected to retain their eight seats from 2019 and gain at least 20 more from the Conservatives, primarily in the south-east and south-west of England, where the Conservative vote has cratered.
Reform UK Prospects
Reform UK is set to retain Lee Anderson’s Ashfield seat and potentially take Clacton and North West Leicestershire. However, Ipsos cautions that Reform UK’s performance is more complex to predict due to its 2019 decision not to stand candidates in Conservative-held seats.
SNP’s Uncertain Fortunes
The SNP’s fortunes in Scotland are uncertain, with Ipsos predicting the party will win 15 seats, down from 48 in 2019, losing ground to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
Greens’ Challenges
The Greens are making strides in Bristol Central and North Hertfordshire but face challenges in holding Brighton Pavilion, which is currently their only seat in Parliament.
Grim Conservative Picture
The Ipsos MRP projection paints an almost unimaginably grim picture for the Conservatives, with the party already beginning to look for a scapegoat on which to pin their defeat.
Campaigning’s Final Days
With Labour poised for a landslide victory and many seats still in contention, it remains to be seen how the final days of campaigning will affect the election outcome.
25 Things You CAN’T Talk About Anymore
Remember the days when you could freely discuss just about anything without fear of sparking controversy? Well, those days are long gone. In today’s hyper-sensitive world, there are topics so fraught with tension that even mentioning them can lead to heated debates and hurt feelings. 25 Things You CAN’T Talk About Anymore
Stranded: 15 Worst British Cars in History
Ever had a car that spent more time with the mechanic than on the road? A car that turned every journey into a game of “Will we actually get there?” If so, you might just see a familiar face (or should we say, chassis) in our countdown to the most unreliable British car in history. Stranded: 15 Worst British Cars in History
“Britain Will Become Unrecognizable” – Suella Braverman Spells Disaster for UK Amid Steep Rise in Visas Issued
Former Home Secretary Suella Braverman has warned that Britain will become “unrecognizable,” criticizing the amount of work visas the Home Office has approved, despite only being removed from her role in November. “Britain Will Become Unrecognizable” – Suella Braverman Spells Disaster for UK Amid Steep Rise in Visas Issued
20 Things From the ‘70s That Are Not OK Today
Step into the time machine and set the dial to the 1970s, a decade of disco, bell-bottoms, and some rather questionable choices. While the ’70s gave us iconic music and groundbreaking TV, not everything from this groovy era would get a green light today. 20 Things From the ‘70s That Are Not OK Today
20 Best and Worst Universities in the UK
Navigating the UK university landscape is like deciphering a complex code of rankings, reviews, and reputations to uncover where you’ll not just learn, but truly flourish. Whether you’re drawn to the historic halls of Oxford or the creative buzz of Goldsmiths, finding your perfect fit is about aligning your aspirations with the unique offerings of each institution. 20 Best and Worst Universities in the UK
The post Labour Set for Historic Landslide as Tory Seats Hang in the Balance first appeared on Edge Media.
Featured Image Credit: Shutterstock / Pixel-Shot.
Grant Gallacher is a seasoned writer with expertise in politics and impactful daily news. His work, deeply rooted in addressing issues that resonate with a wide audience, showcases an unwavering commitment to bringing forth the stories that matter. He is also known for satirical writing and stand up comedy.