Conservative Catastrophe Looms as Battle for Leadership Begins

As the Conservatives brace for a historic election defeat, a fierce internal battle for the party’s future leadership and direction is already heating up. Here’s the full story.

Unprecedented Defeat

With the general election rapidly approaching, the Conservative Party is bracing for what could be an unprecedented defeat if the vast majority of polls are correct, with the party that’s governed the country for the past 14 years potentially facing its most significant election loss in over a century.

Bleak Poll Numbers

According to the latest Focaldata poll, which paints an unremittingly bleak picture for the party, the Conservatives could be reduced to just 110 MPs. However, a confluence of other factors could further reduce that number, leaving the party with fewer than 100 seats if current trends persist.

Consequences of Wipeout

The consequences of such a wipeout for the Conservatives are hard to overstate. Such a loss would likely lead to the immediate resignation of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. This leadership contest could reshape the party’s future and all of the factional infighting that comes along with it.

Factions Battle

In the run-up to the election, several factions have been battling it out to best position themselves for a leadership election, with a more centrist faction, consisting of MPs like Penny Mordaunt, facing off against another faction which is considerably further to the right, with MPs like Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch at the fore.

High Stakes

Time Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University London, spoke to POLITICO about the significance of the current moment, stating, “The stakes couldn’t be higher. The contest between the two sides has the potential to really catch fire.”

Internal Strife

The Conservative Party is already witnessing internal strife as the different factions prepare for the post-election battle. Centrists and right-wing members are gearing up for a potentially brutal fight over the party’s future.

Vicious Row Predicted

Henry Hill, acting editor of ConservativeHome, the mecca for Conservative politics in the UK, predicts a “vicious” row between these factions.

Centrist Strategy

The centrists aim to find a unifying candidate to avoid splitting their vote, while the right-wing faction, influenced by figures like Nigel Farage, hopes that by forcing the party to the right, they can see off the threat of the resurgent anti-immigration policies posited by Reform UK.

Key Leadership Contenders

Several key figures are emerging as potential leadership contenders. Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch and former Home Secretaries Suella Braverman and Priti Patel are among the frontrunners on the right. These candidates have garnered support from MPs on the party’s right who approve of their hardline stances.

Moderate Candidates

On the moderate side, following polling, which shows that Mordaunt is at risk of losing her seat, Security Minister Tom Tugendhat and Health Secretary Victoria Atkins are gaining traction. However, the challenge for centrists is to consolidate their support behind a single candidate to avoid diluting their influence while also appealing to the Conservative base, a lot of which has shifted to the right.

Rightward Shift

The rightward shift is primarily down to Nigel Farage and Reform UK, rapidly gaining ground on the Conservatives following the party’s disastrous election campaign.

Farage’s Influence

Conservatives have become so worried about Farage’s growing influence on the right that some Conservative MPs, including Suella Braverman, have advocated that Farage should be brought into the Conservative fold, potentially leading to an alliance or merger.

Strategic Moves

Behind the scenes, various candidates are already testing the waters and making strategic moves to best position themselves for leadership.

Tugendhat’s Quiet Efforts

Tom Tugendhat is reportedly “working quietly in the background” to gauge support among colleagues, while Grant Shapps and Robert Jenrick are also positioning themselves for a potential leadership bid.

Centrist Strategy Challenges

For the centrists, the strategy involves finding a candidate to unite their faction and present a viable alternative to the right-wing agenda.

Scepticism on Centrist Success

However, Professor Bale is increasingly sceptical of the likelihood of this strategy working in the centrist’s favour, asking, “Will they have the cojones to take on the right?” Answering his question, he said, “Frankly, I’m not sure they will.”

Uncertain Future

As election day draws ever closer, the Conservative Party is facing an increasingly uncertain future, with the sheer scale of the widely predicted defeat likely to cause some severe soul-searching among the few Conservatives that remain following polling day.

Identity and Strategy

The battle between centrists and right-wing members is set to define the Conservative Party’s identity and strategy in the coming years, with whichever victorious faction facing the unenviable task of trying to rebuild a Tory brand which has been run into the ground.

Election Outcome Uncertain

With the election just around the corner, it remains to be seen which faction will ultimately triumph and if their leadership will be enough to make the Conservatives a party of government once more.

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