Nigel Farage has changed his direction of travel in UK politics again this week as Reform gains support. Here’s the full story.
Change of Plans
In what may be the most expected turnaround in British political history, Nigel Farage, the new leader of Reform UK, the party that metamorphosed out of his Brexit party after the UK left the EU, has announced he will be standing for election in the upcoming general election.
“Emergency” Press Conference
Farage, who has tried and failed seven times to get elected to Parliament, announced his decision in a hastily called “emergency” press conference, where he laid out his plans for Reform UK.
Clacton Election
Farage announced that he would be running in Clacton. The current incumbent is Conservative MP Giles Watling, who has a healthy majority of 24,702 votes.
“Political Revolt”
Farage announced that he intended to stand as he had seen while campaigning what he described as a “a rejection of the political class” in the UK and wanted to be the man to lead what he called a “political revolt” in the country.
Severe Headache
Farage’s candidacy will likely be a severe headache for the Conservatives, who are increasingly losing votes to the Reform Party from their right flank.
“Split Down the Middle”
Farage stated, “They [The Conservatives] are split down the middle on policy, and frankly, right now they don’t stand for a damn thing.”
“Many Millions of Votes”
He continued, “So our aim in this election is to get many, many millions of votes. I’m talking far more votes than Ukip got back in 2015.”
“Immigration Election”
Farage promised that his intervention would make this election the “immigration election.” Reform is likely to run on a strict anti-immigration platform, which might force the Conservatives to match his rhetoric.
Disastrous Start
The news of Farage’s run could not have come at a worse time for the Conservative party, who seemed to get their legs under them following a disastrous start to the campaign.
194 Majority
A recent YouGov poll of 50,000 people will have only added to their woes, predicting as it does that Labour would win a majority of 194, considerably larger than Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, which saw a majority of 179.
114 Majority
Another poll by the campaign group More in Common found similar, though not as spectacular, results for Labour, predicting a majority of 114.
21% of Tories
However, the lousy polling news for the Conservatives was only beginning. YouGov’s poll found that Conservative voters were much more likely to vote for Reform UK than Labour voters, with 21% of Tories intending to vote for Reform compared to only 3% of Labour voters.
“Existential Risk”
Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, pointed out the considerable effect that Farage could have on the Conservative vote, stating, “I think it is fair to say his decision poses an existential risk to the Tory Party.”
“A Vote for Reform Only Helps Labour”
A Conservative party spokesperson echoed these concerns, stating that Farage “knows Reform won’t win any seats, but he doesn’t seem to care that a vote for Reform only helps Labour.”
Conservative Nightmare
Whilst Farage’s decision is a nightmare for the Conservatives, it has been well received by Reform UK’s voters, who were outraged when he announced he would not be standing in this election.
Divisive Figure
Though Farage is a highly divisive figure, the media loves him as someone who, like Trump, will say outlandish or controversial things that often lead to days of headlines.
First Past the Post
However, due to the UK’s antiquated first-past-the-post system, it is highly unlikely that Reform UK will be able to grab more than one or two seats, even with the potential for a high vote share up and down the country.
“Pile Votes High”
One Reform aide, who spoke anonymously to POLITICO, admitted that the party would likely “pile votes high” without winning any seats.
Quietly Deposed
However, with the seasoned media performer of Farage now at the helm of the party, with previous leader Richard Tice having been quietly deposed, it is likely that he will dominate the campaign trail for weeks to come.
Conservative Meltdown
His decision led the Conservatives, already close to outright rebellion against their leader, to rapidly approach a meltdown.
“Really Stupid”
One Conservative candidate, who spoke anonymously to the Guardian, stated, “The PM’s decision was really stupid – and obviously really stupid.”
“Tories Are About Stability”
They continued, “Your whole thing is the Tories are about stability and the economy is going to get better, and then you call an election before anyone bloody notices.”
Stepping Back Into the Limelight
As the election draws nearer, Farage’s decision to step back into the limelight he loves can be viewed in several different ways.
Political Manoeuvre
While some will accuse Farage of being an attention hound who has finally seen his chance to get elected to Parliament, others will see it as a wise political move by a seasoned campaign veteran.
Uncertain Future
With Farage now back in the general election running, who will be proven right remains to be seen.
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Grant Gallacher is a seasoned writer with expertise in politics and impactful daily news. His work, deeply rooted in addressing issues that resonate with a wide audience, showcases an unwavering commitment to bringing forth the stories that matter. He is also known for satirical writing and stand up comedy.