Amid escalating tensions, a former army officer working for the Baltic Security Foundation has fuelled discussions on Britain’s possible military intervention in Ukraine. Here’s the full story.
War in Europe
The war in Ukraine has led to a flurry of discussion amongst Western leaders about the potential implications of the largest land war in Europe since WWII.
Increased Defence Spending
With the war now entering its second year, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a scramble among the leaders of European nations to increase defence spending and worries over the potential election of Donald Trump and what that might mean for NATO.
Adding Fuel to the Fire
French President Emmanuel Macron recently added fuel to the fire when, after meeting European leaders in February, he stressed the importance of not appearing weak to a newly expansionist Russia.
NATO Intervention
To the shock and chagrin of several of his European allies, Macron suggested that NATO may need to intervene militarily should it appear that Russia was gaining the upper hand.
“We Will Do Everything”
At a press conference following the European summit, Macron said, “We will do everything needed so Russia cannot win the war.”
“No Consensus”
Macron continued, “There’s no consensus today to send in an official, endorsed manner troops on the ground. But in terms of dynamics, nothing can be ruled out.”
Pouncing on Weakness
Macron then repeated his belief that Russia would pounce on any weakness on the part of the NATO alliance and that the possibility of European boots on the ground in the Ukrainian conflict could not be discounted entirely.
“Target”
Though several Western leaders have firmly opposed Macron’s assertions, with UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron ruling out NATO boots on the ground because he didn’t want to give Russian President Vladimir Putin a “target” to aim at, some within military circles have not been so reluctant.
Stark View
Glen Grant, a former Lieutenant-Colonel in the British Army and current analyst for the Baltic Security Foundation expressed a stark view on Britain’s potential role in the crisis.
“Let’s Be Blunt”
Grant told the Telegraph, “Let’s be blunt about this. We may have to go into battle because I cannot see the French going into battle if they feel they’ve got to and us staying outside.”
“We Are Lost”
He continued, “I think we have to as a nation, because if we don’t we are lost. We’re already losing credibility by the fact that we just can’t produce s**t (military equipment) for people.”
Military Escalation
Grant also outlined what he perceived as Macron’s red lines for military escalation, pointing to the strategic significance of the Black Sea port of Odesa.
Severe Implications
Grant made the case that if the Russians were to capture Odesa, this would have severe economic implications for Ukraine.
“Red Line”
Grant stated, “I think what Macron is saying is that he will not accept Odessa being overrun. That’s his red line in the sand because if Odessa is overrun, then 20 percent of Ukraine’s GDP disappears down the tubes.”
“Deep Trouble Financially”
He continued, “At that point, Ukraine is really in deep trouble financially. It’s also in deep trouble because it just loses its whole shape and it becomes an internal island, as opposed to having a route out to the sea.”
Further Instability
Not only that, but Grant argued that a defeat on that scale could lead to further regional instability, as Russia would view the lack of Western support as a go-ahead for further incursions into other nations that are in Russia’s orbit.
“If Odesa Goes, Moldova Goes”
Grant stated, “If Odesa goes, Moldova goes. Let’s be quite clear about that. Moldova’s next in line. If Moldova goes then we’re looking at Russia in this place hard up against Romania as well as it’s hard up against Estonia and Latvia.”
Steamroller Keeps Rolling
He continued, “I think unless we actually act and show that we’re not willing to accept this, I think the steamroller will just keep coming our way and eventually we will have to go and stop it not by showing that we’re willing to use force but actually by force.”
Lone Voice
Though Grant may be a lone voice from the UK calling for greater military involvement in the Ukrainian war, the calls from others in the military sphere are growing louder.
NATO Decides
The possibility of British military involvement in Ukraine hinges on the decisions of NATO allies, particularly France, in response to Russian aggression.
Safeguard Regional Stability
Though the fall of strategic locations like Odesa could compel Western powers to intervene to safeguard regional stability and security, such a move would likely lead to a broader escalation in and of itself.
Catastrophic Outcomes
With Russia, France and the UK all nuclear-armed powers, the likelihood of such an intervention ending with catastrophic loss of life cannot be understated.
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Grant Gallacher is a seasoned writer with expertise in politics and impactful daily news. His work, deeply rooted in addressing issues that resonate with a wide audience, showcases an unwavering commitment to bringing forth the stories that matter. He is also known for satirical writing and stand up comedy.