Eviction Notice Served: Labour Set to Annihilate More Than 100 Tory Seats

According to the latest Ipsos forecast, Labour is projected to achieve a historic landslide victory in the upcoming general election, with over 100 Conservative-held seats looking increasingly perilous. Here’s the full story.

Safe Seats at Risk

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New polling for Ipsos suggests that not only is Labour set for a decisive victory in the upcoming election, but that so dominant has Keir Starmer’s party become that even previously safe Conservative seats could be up for grabs.

Labour’s Massive Lead

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The latest projections suggest Labour could secure an astounding 453 seats, leaving the Conservatives with a mere 115.

15% Swing Away

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This latest projection implies a sizable swing of 15% away from the Conservatives since 2019, showing how much the country has soured on the party, led by current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Over 100 Contested Seats

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While the projection indicates a seemingly insurmountable lead for Labour, over 100 Conservative-held seats remain highly contested. According to Ipsos, these constituencies are considered too “close to call,” with narrow winning margins that hinge on the decisions of undecided or swing voters.

Outcomes Critical

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The outcomes in these close races will be critical in determining the final composition of the House of Commons but are likely to remain a mystery until the vote counting begins.

Ipsos MRP Model

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The Ipsos MRP model, the first of its kind for the 2024 general election, provides a detailed forecast of seat distribution. It estimates that the Liberal Democrats could win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party (SNP) 15, the Greens three, and Reform UK three.

Notable Projections

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Notably, Nigel Farage of Reform UK is projected to win in Clacton, overturning a substantial Conservative majority. At the same time, Jeremy Corbyn, running as an independent, is predicted to lose to Labour in Islington North.

Labour’s Vote Share

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Labour’s implied vote share is 43%, compared to the Conservatives’ 25%. Reform UK is projected to capture 12%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, the Greens 6%, the SNP 3%, and Plaid Cymru 1%. This represents a precipitous decline for the Conservatives, exacerbating fears of what Chris Hopkins, director of pollsters Savanta, called an “extinction-level event” for the party.

Conservatives Pivot

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For their part, the Conservatives seem to have accepted that defeat is inevitable and, instead of campaigning for victory, have pivoted to warning about a Labour “supermajority.”

Warning of Supermajority

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The Conservatives argue that such an outcome would leave unchecked the new Labour government, which would command one of the most significant majorities in UK political history.

117 Seats Uncertain

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The projection highlights 117 seats as too close to call, with 56 marginally held by the Conservatives and 48 by Labour, with these seats set to be the pivotal battlegrounds of the election.

Worst Defeat Ever

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If the projection holds, the Conservatives would suffer their worst defeat in modern political history. Their previous record low was under Tony Blair in 1997, when the party won just 165 seats.

High-Profile Risks

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High-profile Conservatives risk losing their seats, including Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Grant Shapps, and Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Some Conservatives Safe

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However, Jeremy Hunt is predicted to retain his seat in Godalming and Ash. Rishi Sunak’s Richmond and Northallerton seat is expected to remain Conservative, albeit with a significantly reduced majority.

Labour’s Rising Share

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Labour’s vote share is rising across the country, notably in Scotland and north-east England, with more modest increases in traditional urban strongholds like London, Manchester, and Birmingham. Labour could also gain eight or nine seats in Wales due to declining Conservative support.

Liberal Democrats Gains

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The Liberal Democrats are projected to retain their eight seats from 2019 and gain at least 20 more from the Conservatives, primarily in the south-east and south-west of England, where the Conservative vote has cratered.

Reform UK Prospects

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Reform UK is set to retain Lee Anderson’s Ashfield seat and potentially take Clacton and North West Leicestershire. However, Ipsos cautions that Reform UK’s performance is more complex to predict due to its 2019 decision not to stand candidates in Conservative-held seats.

SNP’s Uncertain Fortunes

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The SNP’s fortunes in Scotland are uncertain, with Ipsos predicting the party will win 15 seats, down from 48 in 2019, losing ground to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Greens’ Challenges

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The Greens are making strides in Bristol Central and North Hertfordshire but face challenges in holding Brighton Pavilion, which is currently their only seat in Parliament.

Grim Conservative Picture

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The Ipsos MRP projection paints an almost unimaginably grim picture for the Conservatives, with the party already beginning to look for a scapegoat on which to pin their defeat.

Campaigning’s Final Days

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With Labour poised for a landslide victory and many seats still in contention, it remains to be seen how the final days of campaigning will affect the election outcome.

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The post Labour Set for Historic Landslide as Tory Seats Hang in the Balance first appeared on Edge Media.

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Grant Gallacher is a seasoned writer with expertise in politics and impactful daily news. His work, deeply rooted in addressing issues that resonate with a wide audience, showcases an unwavering commitment to bringing forth the stories that matter. He is also known for satirical writing and stand up comedy.

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